对37年来飞机失事数据的分析
在涉及波音737 Max 8的致命坠机事件之后, airline and general aviation safety are back in the world’s collective consciousness. While air travel is often touted as one of the safest forms of transportation, 这些事件强调了事故发生时的事实, 结果往往是灾难性的. 在两次事故中, 346 passengers and crew were killed – 157 in the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crash and another 189 in the Lion Air Flight 610 crash.
While the 737 Max 8’s were grounded, hundreds of other planes and aircraft crash each year. 仅在2018年,美国经济就增长了20%.S. 美国国家运输安全委员会对此进行了调查,581 aviation accidents and 事件 that left 847 people dead and another 768 people injured.
这一信息让我们想知道,飞机多久会坠毁一次? 有多少人死于航空事故? 哪些飞机和制造商发生的空难最多?
我们分析了美国航空公司37年来的空难和事故数据.S. National Transportation Safety Board to find answers to these and other questions.
82,727
崩溃 & 事件
42,226
致命的伤害
17,740
严重伤害
28,477
轻伤
这取决于你乘坐的飞机类型. 当看总体的致命撞车率, 数据显示,飞行是最安全的旅行方式之一. The National Safety Council puts the odds of dying as a passenger of an airplane as 1 in 188,106 – the second safest form of travel behind railway travel ( 1 in 243,765). Still, each crash is much more likely to be fatal than 崩溃 in other forms of transportation. From 1982 – 2018, 20 percent of all aviation 崩溃 and 事件 involved at least one fatality. 相比之下,不到1%的美国人.S. 车祸是致命的.
然而, 崩溃 are most likely to occur in single engine planes – and typically in general aviation rather than on commercial airlines. 事实上, 79 percent of all aircraft accidents and 72 percent of fatal 崩溃 involved single engine planes.
37年来最高的2,1996年有533人在飞机失事中受伤, 死亡总人数似乎是随机上下波动的. While it stands to reason that less 崩溃 means less injuries and deaths, the nature of aviation accidents means that only a few major 崩溃 can completely change the data from year to year.
与此同时, 航空事故总数从最高的3起下降了,1982年的583人减少到1人,2018年有581人,下降了近56%. 然而, 随着总崩溃率的下降, 致命事故的比例已经上升, 从18岁.2%到22%.2018年的5%.
事件一年 | 数 | 致命的伤害 | 严重伤害 | 轻伤 |
---|---|---|---|---|
1982 | 3593 | 1585 | 727 | 998 |
1983 | 3556 | 1273 | 673 | 1048 |
1984 | 3457 | 1229 | 697 | 1047 |
1985 | 3096 | 1648 | 612 | 1108 |
1986 | 2880 | 1180 | 619 | 970 |
1987 | 2828 | 1237 | 554 | 936 |
1988 | 2730 | 1195 | 620 | 1117 |
1989 | 2544 | 1532 | 518 | 1029 |
1990 | 2518 | 999 | 589 | 908 |
1991 | 2462 | 1087 | 535 | 913 |
1992 | 2355 | 1273 | 609 | 775 |
1993 | 2313 | 865 | 505 | 910 |
1994 | 2257 | 1183 | 529 | 763 |
1995 | 2309 | 1236 | 480 | 731 |
1996 | 2187 | 2533 | 532 | 729 |
1997 | 2148 | 1296 | 497 | 1026 |
1998 | 2226 | 1325 | 388 | 807 |
1999 | 2209 | 1221 | 491 | 1206 |
2000 | 2220 | 1765 | 501 | 1256 |
2001 | 2063 | 1709 | 478 | 612 |
2002 | 2020 | 1386 | 432 | 706 |
2003 | 2085 | 1374 | 480 | 772 |
2004 | 1952 | 978 | 457 | 603 |
2005 | 2031 | 1689 | 426 | 620 |
2006 | 1851 | 1489 | 420 | 473 |
2007 | 2016 | 1335 | 402 | 543 |
2008 | 1931 | 1293 | 511 | 786 |
2009 | 1805 | 1207 | 381 | 625 |
2010 | 1821 | 1390 | 343 | 589 |
2011 | 1889 | 959 | 432 | 488 |
2012 | 1861 | 1007 | 336 | 464 |
2013 | 1561 | 839 | 358 | 671 |
2014 | 1547 | 1438 | 321 | 469 |
2015 | 1600 | 1112 | 364 | 473 |
2016 | 1628 | 835 | 297 | 468 |
2017 | 1597 | 677 | 295 | 401 |
2018 | 1581 | 847 | 331 | 437 |
It is hard to understate the roles that increase safety regulation and requirements on both operators and on pilots have played in the overall reduction in 崩溃 and fatalities – especially those in the commercial airline industry. 事实上, 直到2018年一名乘客在西南航空的航班上遇难, 美国最近一次致命的空难发生在2009年2月. 那场灾难, 大陆联运3407航班的坠毁, killed all 49 people on board and another person on the ground in Clarence, NY. The resulting lawsuits and advocacy from the families of those who were killed made sweeping changes to the airline industry. 最明显的是, the Airline Safety and Federal 航空 Administration Extension Act of 2010 required significantly more training for pilots – 1,从之前的250小时增加到500小时, 飞行和值班规定, 以及许多其他行业的安全和透明度要求. 许多其他法律, including the Federal 航空 Regulations (FARs) as well as international conventions, regulate everything from product and aircraft manufacturing and maintenance to pilot schools and business operations for commercial as well as general aviation.
并不是所有的飞行阶段都是一样的. 事实上, the person sitting white knuckled next to you with their eyes shut tight may be on to something. 美国国家运输安全委员会的数据显示,飞机起飞和降落, 到目前为止, 航空旅行中最容易发生事故的部分.
Here is the full list of 崩溃 by phase of flight, from most to least 崩溃:
然而, 崩溃 that occur during the maneuvering and cruise phases are most likely to be deadly – 39 percent of 崩溃 during the maneuvering phase and 30 percent of 崩溃 during the cruise were fatal. 有趣的是, 尽管这是最有可能发生事故的阶段, 到目前为止,着陆过程中的事故是最不可能造成死亡的. Just under two percent of landing phase 崩溃 resulted in a fatality – compared to 15.百分之七的飞机在起飞时坠毁.
这些事故分散在全国各地. 然而, 最多的车祸发生在安克雷奇, 阿拉斯加,比第二近的地区快一倍, 迈阿密, 佛罗里达州269起坠机事故.
美国排名前25的其他地区.S. 航空事故:
哪个制造或制造的飞机坠毁最多? 哪一种致死人数最多?
More than half (54 percent) of all aviation accidents in the NTSB’s database involve either a Cessna (25,865崩溃), 派珀(14,105次崩溃)或Beech(5次,098)飞机. These three manufacturers have historically been the largest producers of aircraft for general aviation purposes – though both Beech and Cessna have since become subsidiaries of Textron 航空.
While it stands to reason that the manufacturers involved in the most 崩溃 would also be involved in the most fatalities, 事实并非如此. 塞斯纳飞机坠毁造成的死亡人数比其他任何飞机都多,共有9人,216人死亡), 但波音以8分的成绩跃居第二,203人死亡. Airbus – Boeing’s only real competitor – also jumped into the top five with 2,397 deaths. The two large jet manufacturers place in the top five should not be surprising, as they have essential had a duopoly over large jet market since the early 1990s, 多亏了一系列的兼并和收购.
塞斯纳和风笛手. 事实上, the top 15 aircraft models in total 崩溃 are all made by those two manufacturers – and nine of the top ten are Cessnas. The 塞斯纳152 was involved in nearly 800 more 崩溃 than any other aircraft.
就死亡人数而言, Boeing aircraft occupy four of the top five – the 波音737 - 200 has killed the most people at 906 deaths, 紧随其后的是波音737, 波音777-206和波音MD-82.
Here is a full list of the top 25 aircraft modes by 崩溃 and fatalities:
飞机,
崩溃最
使 & 模型 | 总崩溃 |
---|---|
塞斯纳152 | 2320 |
塞斯纳172 | 1521 |
塞斯纳172牛 | 1141 |
Piper pa - 28 - 140 | 901 |
塞斯纳172 | 781 |
塞斯纳150 | 773 |
塞斯纳172便士 | 675 |
塞斯纳150 | 584 |
塞斯纳180 | 581 |
塞斯纳182 | 574 |
Piper Pa-18 | 571 |
Piper pa - 28 - 161 | 557 |
Piper pa - 28 - 180 | 556 |
Piper pa - 18 - 150 | 543 |
Piper pa - 28 - 181 | 518 |
贝尔206 b | 503 |
Piper pa - 38 - 112 | 464 |
塞斯纳150升 | 451 |
山毛榉A36 | 397 |
塞斯纳170 b | 376 |
塞斯纳140 | 373 |
格鲁曼公司g - 164 a | 364 |
塞斯纳172年代 | 355 |
塞斯纳182便士 | 345 |
飞机,
杀死最多的人
使 & 模型 | 总崩溃 |
---|---|
波音737 - 200 | 906 |
波音737 | 780 |
波音777 - 206 | 534 |
塞斯纳172牛 | 425 |
波音md - 82 | 403 |
塞斯纳152 | 385 |
空客A321 | 381 |
Piper pa - 28 - 181 | 378 |
波音747 - 168 | 349 |
图- 154 | 349 |
塞斯纳172 | 340 |
空客A330 | 331 |
Piper pa - 28 - 140 | 314 |
山毛榉A36 | 313 |
波音767 - 200 er | 295 |
波音747 - 121 | 270 |
空客a300b4 - 605 r | 266 |
Piper pa - 28 - 180 | 263 |
道格拉斯dc - 8 - 63 | 263 |
麦道DC-9-32 | 262 |
波音757 - 200 | 254 |
Piper pa - 23 - 250 | 249 |
塞斯纳172 | 244 |
贝尔206 b | 242 |
从死亡人数来看,最严重的空难, 许多是恐怖袭击的结果, 轰炸和军事演习. 然而,航空史上最严重的10起空难是:
特内里费,金丝雀岛
1977年3月27日,
死亡: 583
幸存者: 61
原因: 飞行员的错误
飞机: 荷兰皇家航空公司波音747-206B和泛美航空公司波音747-121
1985年8月12日
Takamagahara山,日本
死亡: 520
幸存者: 四个
原因: 动态结构破坏
飞机: 日航老的波音747 - 146
1996年11月12日
Charkhi Dadri,哈里亚纳邦,印度
死亡: 349
幸存者: 没有一个
原因: 飞行员错误导致空中碰撞
飞机: Saudi Arabian Arilines 波音747 - 168B and Kazakhstan Airlines Illyushin II-76TD
1974年3月3日
位于法国巴黎东北部
死亡: 346
幸存者: 没有一个
原因: 由于设计缺陷导致货舱门失效
飞机: 土耳其航空公司麦道DC-10
1980年8月19日
利雅得,沙特阿拉伯
死亡: 301
幸存者: 没有一个
原因: 空中起火
飞机: 沙特洛克希德l - 1011 - 200
1979年5月25日
德斯普兰斯,伊利诺斯州(芝加哥郊区)
死亡: 273(两名地面死亡)
幸存者: 没有一个
原因: 维修不当(发动机脱离)
飞机: 美国航空公司麦道DC-10
2001年11月12日
皇后区,纽约市,纽约
死亡: 265(五人地面死亡)
幸存者: 没有一个
原因: 飞行员的错误 (Excessive Ruder Use Leading to Separation of the Vertical Stabilizer)
飞机: 美国航空空客A300B4-605R
1994年4月26日
日本名古屋
死亡: 264
幸存者: 七个
原因: 飞行员的错误和缺乏培训
飞机: 华航空客A300B4-622R
1991年7月11日
吉达,沙特阿拉伯
死亡: 261
幸存者: 没有一个
原因: Improper Maintenance (Under Inflated Tire That Lead to a Fire After Takeoff)
飞机: 国家航空公司道格拉斯DC-8-61(代表尼日利亚航空公司运营)
1979年11月28日
南极洲,埃里伯斯火山
死亡: 257
幸存者: 没有一个
原因: Computer Coordinates Where Changed to Steer Aircraft Directly into Mount Erebus
飞机: 新西兰航空公司麦道DC-10-30
(Note: This list excludes planes that were shot down or destroyed in terrorist attacks – such as the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001 (2,996死亡人数), 印度航空182号航班爆炸(329人死亡), Malysia Airlines Flight 17 (298 deaths) – or those involved in military exercises.)